Modelling Scenarios

Policy economist Suman Bery joined NITI Aayog as Vice-Chairman.  For four years, (until mid-2016) Mr Bery was Chief Economist of Shell International, based in The Hague (The Netherlands). He was part of the senior leadership of Shell’s global scenarios group, exploring pathways that would allow the world to reconcile decent living with lower carbon. While with Shell he collaborated with Indian research institutions on scenarios for Indian energy policy. (Energizing India. Sage, 2017. New Delhi).

Scenario writing

A scenario is a written description of a situation. Kahn and Wiener(1967) defined Scenarios as follows: “Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focussing attention on casual processes and decision points.” Scenario planning is not a 'tea leaf'-type technique. It does not generate forecasts of the future, but instead, paints pictures of possible futures. The aim is not to sit back and wait for the future to happen, but to prepare for what might actually occur. Scenario planning allows decision makers to anticipate potential futures and prepare action plans today that will safeguard their organisations, tomorrow, whatever actually does take place. Scenario planning gives more than a statistical measure of possible future, it should give a feel of living in the future, a sort of journey on a time machine. 

(Further reading- Timing it right with Technology Forecasting)

Shell Scenarios

Shell has been developing possible visions of the future since the early 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders, academics, governments and businesses to explore ways forward and make better decisions. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions, encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities and stretch their thinking.

https://youtu.be/nwub4Bhr-aM

Medical Technology Scenario - Vinod Khoshla

In the future, the majority of physicians’ diagnostic, prescription and monitoring, which over time may approach 80 % of total doctors’/internists’ time spent on medicine, will be replaced by smart hardware, software, and testing.

The first iteration might look like a stage where we see enhancements to traditional medicine with better blood glucose tracking, better software to manage patients, more support tools, for today’s doctor or health professional, better patient compliance tools, better information coordination, etc. Vinod Khosla terms it Vo System. At this level of technology we move away from molecular diagnostics and lab work being collected only in a clinical setting, to testing in kiosks, or mobile care centers and finally at home.

In a V1/V2 or may be V3 system, there will be home testing through finger sticks, exhalation or sampling of other material such as sputum, urine or faces. While V0 systems may be software to help with healthcare workflows, V1 systems will do intelligent routing, alerting users to errors , caution, better treatment etc.

In another 10-15 years we may get assistance from Dr Algorithm, who with press of a button would scan massive historical database, identify thousands of patients with similar symptoms, focus on those who are similar to you, then summarise the diagnosis, treatment and outcomes of those cases.

We will be moving from `practice of medicine' to `science of medicine', data- science- algorithms takes care of diagnosis and robots precision surgery. And doctors would be there to heal and do a better job in that with personalised medical treatment.

Further Reading;