Read the thought-provoking article by Michael Park1 , Erin Leahey2 & Russell J. Funk.
Abstract:
Theories of scientifc and technological change view discovery and invention as endogenous processes1,2 , wherein previous accumulated knowledge enables future progress by allowing researchers to, in Newton’s words, ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’3–7 . Recent decades have witnessed exponential growth in the volume of new scientifc and technological knowledge, thereby creating conditions that should be ripe for major advances8,9 . Yet contrary to this view, studies suggest that progress is slowing in several major felds10,11. Here, we analyse these claims at scale across six decades, using data on 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents from six large-scale datasets, together with a new quantitative metric—the CD index12—that characterizes how papers and patents change networks of citations in science and technology. We fnd that papers and patents are increasingly less likely to break with the past in ways that push science and technology in new directions. This pattern holds universally across felds and is robust across multiple diferent citation- and text-based metrics1,13–17. Subsequently, we link this decline in disruptiveness to a narrowing in the use of previous knowledge, allowing us to reconcile the patterns we observe with the ‘shoulders of giants’ view. We fnd that the observed declines are unlikely to be driven by changes in the quality of published science, citation practices or feld-specifc factors. Overall, our results suggest that slowing rates of disruption may refect a fundamental shift in the nature of science and technology.
