Policy economist Suman Bery joined NITI Aayog as Vice-Chairman. For four years, (until mid-2016) Mr Bery was Chief Economist of Shell International, based in The Hague (The Netherlands). He was part of the senior leadership of Shell’s global scenarios group, exploring pathways that would allow the world to reconcile decent living with lower carbon. While with Shell he collaborated with Indian research institutions on scenarios for Indian energy policy. (Energizing India. Sage, 2017. New Delhi).
Scenario writing
A scenario is a written description of a situation. Kahn and Wiener(1967) defined Scenarios as follows: “Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focussing attention on casual processes and decision points.” Scenario planning is not a 'tea leaf'-type technique. It does not generate forecasts of the future, but instead, paints pictures of possible futures. The aim is not to sit back and wait for the future to happen, but to prepare for what might actually occur. Scenario planning allows decision makers to anticipate potential futures and prepare action plans today that will safeguard their organisations, tomorrow, whatever actually does take place. Scenario planning gives more than a statistical measure of possible future, it should give a feel of living in the future, a sort of journey on a time machine.
(Further reading- Timing it right with Technology Forecasting)
Shell Scenarios
Shell has been developing possible visions of the future since the early 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders, academics, governments and businesses to explore ways forward and make better decisions. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions, encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities and stretch their thinking.
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